The Ministry of Water and Environment has issued a seasonal climate outlook indicating that a dry spell is likely to dominate much of Uganda between June and August 2026, with rainfall expected to remain limited across most regions during the period.

The forecast, released through the Department of Meteorological Services, attributes the anticipated conditions to prevailing global ocean-atmosphere patterns, particularly warming sea surface temperatures over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean, signalling an El Niño tendency.

According to the statement, Uganda typically experiences two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and September to November, while transitional dry periods occur between December to February and June to August, especially in the southern parts of the country.

“The two major rainfall seasons are separated by two dry periods, namely; December to February, and June to August for the southern sector,” the statement noted.

For the June-August 2026 period, the forecast suggests that the southern region of Uganda will experience predominantly dry conditions, while northern and some parts of eastern Uganda may still receive occasional rainfall.

“The current warm state of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean (El Niño tendency) is expected to suppress the JJA rainfall over most parts of the country,” the ministry statement read in part.

Despite the expected dryness in many areas, meteorologists caution that rainfall distribution will not be uniform, with localized showers still possible in select regions, particularly in northern Uganda.

The Ministry has urged farmers, disaster preparedness teams, and local governments to use the forecast for planning purposes, especially in agriculture, water resource management, and food security planning.

Officials further emphasized that seasonal forecasts are intended to guide early action and reduce vulnerability to climate related risks across sectors.