Uganda’s ambition to grow its economy to US$500 billion will require more than an increase in GDP. It will depend on sustained investment, higher productivity, industrialisation, value addition and the ability to create productive jobs for a growing population.
This was a key message at the 10th High-Level Economic Growth Forum held at the Kampala Sheraton Hotel from August 27th–28th, 2026. The two-day forum brought together government officials, researchers, private-sector leaders and development partners to discuss the structural changes needed to accelerate Uganda’s economic transformation under the Tenfold Growth Strategy.
The discussions focused on how Uganda can move from an economy that largely exports raw and minimally processed commodities to one that produces higher-value goods for both domestic and international markets. Participants also examined the need to diversify exports, strengthen local industries and improve the productivity of businesses and workers.
While the US$500 billion target provides a measure of the scale of Uganda’s ambition, participants stressed that the quality of growth will matter as much as its size. For the wider population, economic transformation will ultimately be reflected in employment opportunities, stronger household incomes, expanding businesses and improved access to markets.
Sustained Investment
Investment was identified as one of the foundations of the Tenfold Growth Strategy, with participants calling for greater investment in sectors capable of expanding production, creating employment and strengthening Uganda’s economic resilience.
The Minister of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives, Sanjay Tanna, highlighted manufacturing and value addition as important drivers of the country’s transformation. The focus is intended to help Uganda retain more value from its agricultural and other natural resources instead of exporting them in raw form and importing finished products.
Local processing can create economic activity across several stages of production. Farmers can access markets for their produce, manufacturers can expand operations, transporters can move goods, and workers can earn incomes from jobs created along the value chain.
The challenge, however, is to ensure that investment translates into productive activity. This includes establishing and expanding industries, improving technology, strengthening infrastructure and creating an environment in which businesses can make long-term investments.
Raising Productivity
Investment alone will not be sufficient to deliver the targeted economic expansion. Uganda will also need to increase productivity across agriculture, manufacturing and services.
Higher productivity means producing more and better goods and services with greater efficiency. Participants pointed to the importance of technology, innovation, skills development and improved production systems in helping businesses reduce costs and compete more effectively.
The move towards value addition is particularly important because it allows the country to capture a larger share of the economic value generated from its resources. Instead of exporting commodities at relatively low value, Uganda can process them locally and sell finished or semi-finished products in higher-value markets.
The dairy sector provides an example of the potential of this approach. Uganda has developed its domestic dairy production and increasingly gained access to export markets, showing how investment and local production can help build industries that serve both domestic and external demand.
The same approach could be extended to other sectors where Uganda has the raw materials, workforce and market opportunities needed to support greater local production.
Making Economic Growth Meaningful
GDP growth provides an important measure of economic performance, but it does not by itself show whether businesses are creating jobs, farmers are receiving better returns or young people are finding opportunities to earn sustainable incomes.
The composition of growth therefore matters. An economy that expands through productive sectors with strong links to agriculture, manufacturing and services is more likely to generate wider economic opportunities than one where growth is concentrated in areas with limited employment or local value creation.
For Uganda, strengthening these connections will be important as the country seeks to expand its economic base. More productive agriculture can supply industries with raw materials, while manufacturing can create markets for local producers and generate employment across supply chains.
A Shared Responsibility
The forum also highlighted that the Tenfold Growth Strategy cannot be implemented by government alone. Government has a central role in providing a predictable policy environment, developing infrastructure and addressing constraints that discourage investment. However, the private sector will be responsible for much of the investment, production, innovation and job creation needed to expand the economy.
Researchers and academic institutions can contribute evidence and new ideas to inform policy and business decisions, while development partners can provide financing and technical support.
The effectiveness of these partnerships will ultimately be judged by their results. Policies and strategies will have to translate into new investments, higher production, stronger exports and more productive employment.
Beyond the Target
Uganda’s US$500 billion ambition sets a clear direction for the country’s economic policy, but achieving it will require sustained effort across several fronts.
The country will need to strengthen domestic industries, increase productivity, add value to its resources, diversify exports and create conditions that encourage long-term investment. It will also need to build resilience against external economic shocks and changing global markets.
The success of the Tenfold Growth Strategy, therefore, will not be measured by GDP figures alone. It will be seen in the number of businesses that grow, the industries that emerge, the products Uganda is able to export, the farmers who gain access to better markets and the jobs created for the country’s workforce.
The US$500 billion target may define the ambition. The real measure of success will be whether Uganda can turn that ambition into a more productive and competitive economy that creates lasting opportunities for its people.
