IS IT THE END OF THE BEGINNING OR THE BEGINNING OF THE END? The conflicting US-Uganda relationship

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President Museveni meets American Senior Bureau official for African Affairs Nick Checker and delegation at State House Entebbe. Photo by: PPU

Since the January 15th election, the general public which included both government and the opposition had been anxious about the continued silence of the White House or their representatives about the recently concluded general elections in Uganda where President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni emerged victorious with 71.65% of the figures.

The election results were, however, rejected by the National Unity Platform (NUP) party citing unprecedented levels of vote rigging, voter intimidation, and military involvement in the election as quoted by the NUP party president Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu (Bobi Wine) while on his socials speaking from hiding.

This was followed by his exit from the country taking route to the USA in a move that remains ‘a controversial exit’ to many who have since questioned his ability to bypass the country’s intelligence and security apparatus throughout his secret hiding tenure, and the controversial exit.

Many claims have since emerged that Bobi Wine was sneaked out of the country through Entebbe Airport by the regime’s big wings with many citing General Salim Saleh a young brother to president Museveni and Ugandan Ambassador to the United Nations Adonia Ayebare.

However, these claims remain un-verified not until a future declassification is made by officials or ex-officials from the government or the NUP party, or even the US-Embassy. The existing claims have only been based on analysis of events to form collaborative facts which could be true or false.

Some analysts like Mubarak Munyagwa, the Common Man’s Party president and a participant in the same presidential election, and Frank Gashumba, among others have since asserted that his secret hiding was ‘a planned political stunt’ with the state (regime) to hoodwink his foot soldiers and Ugandans who had voted for him.

These further hold belief that while in hiding, Bobi Wine negotiated cash outs with the regime in order to calm down his hopeless voters with hope that he had an alternative plan to claim his alleged victory.
The likely scripted turn of events led to an-attack on Bobi Wine’s home in a deliberate move to creates an asylum justification for his wife Barbra Itungo Kyagulanyi on grounds of political persecution and insecurity a move that successfully saw her exit to the United States before being followed by the husband.

The earlier opinions all together underpin the continued unverified claims of Bobi Wine being president Museveni’s proxy, with direct handlers like Secretary General David Lewis Rubongoya and Party treasurer Benjamin Katana who have had a history linked to Museveni’s Intelligence net-work, and direct financial upbringings from him since their childhoods.

This, however, creates a good strategic point of discussion on whether the Americans and other foreign governments know or intend to know about the continuous allegations of Bobi Wine being a regime agent? Secondly, would the Americans continue dealing with an opposition mole planted by the regime?
Known for having a conflicting relationship concerning accountability, human rights, and civil liberties, among others, the United States government remained silent about the election results and subsequent post-election dynamics as discussed earlier on. As diplomatic partners, one would expect a congratulation but neither a congratulatory nor a despising comment was made about the election process and the figures, which was an un-predictable dynamic regarding their stance about the election.

However, in a dramatic turn of events, Nick Checker, the Bureau of African Affairs Chief at the US Department of State led a public delegation that attended president Museveni’s swearing-in held on Tuesday, May 12th, 2026, at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds in Kampala.

This shift of events points to possibilities of shuttle, backchannel or any other forms of quiet diplomacy between the U.S and Ugandan government in regards to the election and their continued co-operation. Another possibility arises from the possibility of knowledge by the U.S government about the political stunts/games surrounding Bobi-Wine’s post-election fracas because they (Americans) have intelligence capabilities to know the truths of the events (disclaimer: these two possibilities are opinions by the writer but are not assertions, but mere likelihoods in the circumstance. They could therefore be true or false).

However, there have been long term strategic interests between Uganda and the United states ranging from trade co-operations, geo-political security, counter-terrorism efforts in the region, and general security co-operations, among others, despites several concerns from the United States regarding the human rights standards, suppression of civil liberties, transparency and others. These concerns have resulted in both criminal and financial sanctions targeting several government officers including speaker Annet Anita Among, trade restrictions such as tariffs and the abrupt termination of Uganda from the AGOA treaty, and visa restrictions, among others.

In the new term, concerns exist about the relationship between the two countries; to me as the writer, a relationship with the U.S is a good one and the two parties should along the way have mutual respect and attention to concerns from either side. This should include fundamental concerns such as human rights, counter-terrorism efforts, trade, financial assistance, general security, transparency/accountability and others. Will this be upheld by both sides? Is it the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end to a conflicting US-Uganda Relations?

Richard Bard Byamukama is a lawyer and a security studies scholar

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