On June 23, 2023, the Wagner group, a Russian paramilitary organization/ network of mercenaries and a de facto private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged an armed rebellion, captured the city of Rostov-on-Don and promised to proceed to Moscow and dislodge President Vladimir Putin.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is a businessman formerly with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Wagner operates in support of Russian interests, receives equipment from the Russian Ministry of Defence and has used ministry’s installations for training.
Formed in 2014, the Wagner has its headquarters in Saint Petersburg, Russia with a slogan “Blood, Honor, Homeland, Courage” and has a size of over 25,000 men.
The group has been involved in Russia’s foreign missions that include War in Donbas (2014–2022), Battle of Debaltseve, Syrian civil war, South Sudanese civil war (military training and security) and they have played a significant role in the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion after accusing the Russian military of killing Wagner forces. Wagner units were withdrawn from Ukraine and seized the city of Rostov-on-Don in Russia.
A convoy of Wagner forces then headed towards Moscow, attempting to reach the capital before it could be intercepted by regular forces loyal to the government.
The rebellion was abruptly halted on June 24, 2023, by a deal allegedly brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
In a national address, Part of Putin’s statement read ”We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Decisive actions will be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult.”
Adding, “As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger.”
Several Western leaders and media houses commented on the armed rebellion saying the cracks in Putin leadership have been exposed and his presidency will be no more whether Wagner succeeds or not, some even reported how Putin’s presidential jet had left Moscow to St Petersburg carrying the president and his family.
Later in the evening of Saturday, June 24, 2023, Prigozhin in a voice message said ”We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of blood, now there is the possibility of blood being shed, understanding this responsibility we will turn around our convoys and return to our bases.”
It is reported that in the agreement between Balarusian President Akeksandr Lukushenko and Prigozhin, Prigozhin will move to neighbouring Belarus and not face prosecution and the troops who joined him will also not be prosecuted. Fighters from the Wagner group who did not take part in the uprising will be offered contracts by the Defence Ministry.
What would have been the implications of this armed rebellion to Africa if it came out real and successful?
Dramatic as the situation was, there were rumors of CIA involvement in the rebellion so that Ukraine would take advantage and launch a counter offensive.
If indeed CIA was involved and succeeded, African countries and the rest of the world would have no option but to bend to US hegemony for the next 100 or more years.
The success by Russia in Ukraine is the only chance at the moment to tame American hegemony with Many African countries indirectly allying with Russia and some like South Africa already joining BRICS.
The US has repeatedly used the trick of facilitating internal dissent and come to crash when at the weakest in the name of protecting the lives of the people.
However, very Many questions remain un answered, how did the Wagner with very few soldiers manage to overrun the Russian Federation army of 1.5 million men and advance to Moscow from Rostov-on-Don uninterrupted just in a few hours?
It should be noted that 3/4 of Wagner soldiers deliberately refused to join Prigozhin in the armed rebellion.
By Prigozhin accepting to be exiled in Belarus, a country headed by Lukushenko who happens to be Putin’s close ally, there is nothing Prigozhin is fearing in Russia that Putin cannot do to him in Belarus.
With Putin’s Military might and background in war planning, it is not farfetched to conclude that he might have stage managed the coup with Prigozhin so as to identify the double agents and the Western/NATO collaborators in his army and the Wagner.
The writer is an Analyst in politics and International Relations at Political Impact Consultant Firm
