Every time something comes to an end, something else begins. So is it the end of a beginning or the beginning of an end for building strong opposition in Uganda?

The future of Uganda’s opposition politics lies in the doldrums, as sharp talk has developed most recently about the strength and unity of these political parties and their ability to breed more capable leadership to transit the National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) dominance from power.

Some analysts have called the current opposition a mere wave, which is deemed to lose direction as it flows further.

The National Unity Platform (NUP)  party president, Robert Kyagulanyi, commonly known as Bobi Wine, replaced Hon. Mathias Mpuuga with Hon. Joel Ssenyonyi as the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, merely after two and a half years in office.

President Museveni also reshuffles cabinets, so it is normal, but the reshuffle of Mathias Mpuga has cast doubt amongst a section of opposition MPs even within the NUP about the experience and potential of the former and the successor. The seemingly simple fracture could turn out to be a compound fracture, which will leave the opposition voiceless, as the hopes of uniting all the opposition party MPs in the House of Parliament could end up futile. Some members of parliament remain loyal to Mpuuga for his diplomatic approach to handling matters in the House. There is no doubt that Ssenyonyi is poised to operate in a challenging environment.

Any leadership position in a company or an opposition party, and even in government, requires having the right skill-set to deal with a complex environment. Ssenyonyi is expected to lead and unite more experienced legislators from NUP, with the majority number of MPs coming from the FDC, DP, Justice Forum (JEEMA), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), and People’s Progressive Party (PPP).

Look! I am worried about our democracy because strong opposition and political parties are vital for the functioning of a modern democracy. They are essential for the organisation of the modern democratic polity and are crucial for the expression and manifestation of political pluralism.

However, on many occasions, the opposition has been divided into sharp cracks at key positions in parliament. For example, during the November 2023 plenary boycott over missing persons, there was a decision by the DP and FDC to call off the ongoing boycott of plenary sittings in parliament, something the NUP didn’t agree to. There are several internal disputes and fractures within key opposition parties; for example, the FDC party is currently divided into the Katoga and Najjanankumbi factions, the NUP is battling with some of its rebel MPs, like the Bukoto South MP Hon Twaha Kagabo, the UPC wrangles between Jimmy Akena and his brother Amb Olara Otunu and Ochieno, and the Democratic Party between Mao and Bayiga factions.

Coupled with several court battles, there is much doubt about the unity of the opposition, even at a single time in the near future. The opposition has tried several attempts to form coalitions; for example, in 2008, a coalition of several Ugandan opposition political parties adopted a protocol committing them to work together in order to break the dominance and weaken the position of the ruling party, NRM.

In the run-up to the 2011 elections, the Inter-Party Coallition (IPC) adopted an Additional Protocol (2009) providing for a common electoral platform in which the parties would field a single presidential candidate to run as the opposition flag-bearer. However, just as the transition to adoption of a common electoral platform was being negotiated in the Additional Protocol, two key parties expected to be major partners in the IPC withdrew from the agreement. The DP did not consent to the Additional Protocol, while the UPC signed the Additional Protocol but abandoned cooperation five months before the elections took place.

The IPC continued, supported by the membership of the FDC, JEEMA, the CP, and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a new member of the coalition. This development shocked many Ugandans, as none of the opposition parties alone could come close to defeating the ruling party, which, I believe, isn’t even possible for a single political party to solely defeat the NRM in 2026.

In 2016, another trial for an opposition alliance came out futile after the failure of the Democratic Alliance (TDA) to agree on a joint flag bearer. The contenders for the Joint Flag Bearers were FDC’s Dr. Kizza Besigye and former Prime Minister and NRM Secretary General Amama Mbabazi.

A lot more confusion is yet to emerge right from the topmost leadership of Uganda’s opposition political parties as we draw closer to the 2026 general elections, and we are yet to see several massive defections to the NRM party and an increase in the number of independent candidates in the opposition-dominated regions of Buganda and Busoga.

The future of opposition political parties lies in the doldrums, as they are yet to remain bruised and embattled in both internal and external fractures.

So I repose my question: is it the end of a beginning or the beginning of an end for building strong opposition in Uganda?