As Uganda counts down to the January 2026 elections, top academics and opposition figures have raised alarms over the country’s electoral environment, warning that the ‘securitization’ of politics threatens democracy and national stability.

The warning came at the 4th National Security Studies Conference, hosted by Nkumba University on 2nd December 2025, under the theme “Security for All: Demands and Expectations in the Election Period.”

The conference evolved into a contentious debate, exposing a deep divide between opposition, scholars, and the country’s security agencies.

Professor Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a senior political scientist at Makerere University, delivered a forensic analysis of Uganda’s electoral violence, describing it as a structural, historical phenomenon embedded in the political landscape.

“Peace is not merely the absence of war, but the presence of justice,” Ndebesa said,quoting Martin Luther King Jr.

He talked about a pattern from the 1960s, where governments labeled opposition groups as security threats to justify extraordinary measures.

Professor Ndebesa recalled the 1980 elections, when regions like West Nile were deemed insecure, effectively limiting opposition participation.

The Professor also criticized the ‘liberation movement’ culture within the NRM, highlighting what he called an entitlement narrative where those who fought for power feel justified to retain it.

“There is an entitlement narrative whereby those who fought for power see themselves as entitled to retain it. When the chairman of the Electoral Commission speaks, he is obeyed. When others act independently, problems arise,” he stated.

The opposition voiced similar concerns.

Benjamin Katana, the National Unity Platform (NUP) Treasurer, alleged that security agencies had been ‘captured’ and were functioning as extensions of the ruling party’s campaign machinery.

“Challenging the office of President Museveni is not viewed as exercising a constitutional right, but as a threat to Uganda’s security and state integrity then you are treated accordingly,” Katana noted.

He accused the authorities of several actions like using police trucks to ferry NRM loyalists to rallies, deploying a state-backed ‘ghetto militia’ to harass citizens, and arresting more than 500 NUP supporters in a single day for participating in a rally.

Katana further linked the Director of Crime Intelligence, Major General Christopher Ddamulira, to orchestrating such militia activities, arguing that the army’s partisan alignment could destabilize national security.

In response, Dr. Stephen Kizza, representing the Director General of the ISO, highlighted the constitutional mandate of security agencies to maintain order.

He framed security as an ecosystem requiring responsible participation from political parties, citizens, and the media.

“Misinformation on social media and unresolved local grievances can trigger violence. Ensuring transparency in communication and collaboration is key,” he stated.

However, his address did not directly address allegations of partisan behavior raised by the opposition.

Adding a broader conceptual lens, Prof. David Ngendo-Tshimba of Uganda Martyrs University warned of ‘electoral fundamentalism,’ a blind belief that the act of voting alone constitutes democracy, even when the process lacks justice, equity, and institutional integrity.

“We assume that letting every adult vote is a magic solution but voting and real democracy are not the same,” he noted.

Professor Tshimba warned that Uganda’s deeper crises such as unresolved land conflicts and mass youth unemployment will erupt regardless of the January outcome, and that the country’s fixation on a securitized electoral mirage only diverts attention from these looming threats.

Despite differing viewpoints, the conference concluded that Uganda faces heightened risks if elections are conducted under a climate of fear.

Prof. Ndebesa closed with a stark warning.

“Deliberately fueling fear during elections is like riding a tiger. It is unpredictable, reckless, and ultimately a danger to the survival and security of the state,” he cautioned.

The conference showed that the real contest ahead of the 2026 elections goes far beyond rallies and campaign promises. It lies in defining what Uganda security organs truly stands for; institutions that protect all citizens equally, or instruments that reinforce a political status quo.

How the country resolves this tension will determine not only the credibility of the coming polls, but the stability of the state itself.