As the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) grapples with declining support in the Buganda region, political analysts and party members are sharply divided on its prospects for recovery.

This follows the recently concluded Kawempe North by-election which saw the National Unity Platform (NUP) candidate, Erias Nalukoola Luyimbazi, defeat NRM’s Nambi Faridah.

The NUP candidate polled 17764 votes to beat his closest rival and NRM’s Faridah Nambi, who got 8593 votes during the results announced by the Electoral Commission at their tally center at Makerere University.

During a political dialogue on a local broadcast on March 25, 2025, Yusuf Nsibambi, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) chief whip in parliament, said that NRM’s grip on Buganda is slipping due to years of neglect and broken promises.

“What is happening in Buganda is not surprising. NRM has taken the voters in the region for granted, accusing the party of expecting votes without delivering tangible development. The population is tired of the lies of NRM and is now paying them back in kind,” Nsibambi stated.

Nsibambi painted a grim picture of the NRM’s chances for a comeback, emphasizing the dire state of infrastructure in his constituency.

“In my constituency, all the feeder roads are gone. Unless NRM addresses such issues, they will not make a comeback in the region,” he warned.

Nsibambi criticized the NRM’s reliance on food handouts during rallies, deeming it embarrassing, saying people turn up at NRM rallies desperately to access food.

Dr Lulume Bayiga, an opposition leader, acknowledged the NRM’s efforts in Buganda but stressed the importance of understanding the region’s unique political dynamics. While Bayiga agreed that the NRM was making progress, he cautioned that the party needed to recognize the growing strength of the opposition in Uganda, despite challenges within its ranks.

“The leaders in the opposition are weakened, but the substance of the opposition has grown tremendously in Uganda,” he stated.

In contrast, Godfrey Kiwanda, a prominent NRM supporter and party mobilizer, dismissed claims that Buganda was lost to the NRM.

Kiwanda, who has been involved in the “Buganda For Museveni” initiative, argued that the party could recover in the region, drawing parallels to its resurgence in the Teso region in the past.

“Buganda is not irrecoverable for NRM. We have done it before in Teso, and we can do it in Buganda,” Kiwanda said.

He refuted concerns about internal divisions within the party and defended the use of food handouts as a legitimate method to attract voters.

“What’s wrong with people turning up to eat? It’s a good thing if they come to your rallies,” he added.

He also defended the NRM’s reliance on prominent figures for mobilization, saying, “Strong parties are built on strong personalities. It’s okay for NRM to leverage our strong personalities when mobilizing,” Kiwanda said.

As the next election approaches, the NRM’s ability to regain support in Buganda remains uncertain. The party’s leadership will need to address key issues like infrastructure development and voter maltreatment if it hopes to make a significant impact in the region.