Lies, betrayal, regrets and broken promises surround the hopes of a section of change seeking Ugandans who were very eager to overthrow the presidency of the Country’s long serving leader Yoweri Museveni in 2021.

In the last general election, millions of Ugandans complied with the NUP call to vote out President Museveni, and every politician associated with NRM out of power. This saw the ousting of several prominent NRM affiliated politicians in Kampala, and the greater Buganda sub-region including the former Vice President, Cabinet ministers among others.

In 2021, you only needed the NUP flag. It didn’t matter whether you would campaign or not, voters would still vote for the Umbrella symbol, which may not be possible in 2026, due to a couple of outmatched regrets.

This saw the birth and rise of a new set of youthful politicians in the country’s leadership. However, many of these politicians have been defined by inefficiency and incapability to discuss, understand or deliver policies and services to the country and the electorates which has lessened the morale amongst their electorates, and also deprived the country of better policies and services.

The inefficiency  accounts for the high corruption rates for example at parliament and other government institutions, and the passing of many un-popular Bills by parliament for example the Coffee Bill, The Administration of Parliament Act that saw parliamentary commissioners sharing billions among themselves as service awards, EFRIS among others without any resistance due to incompetency and inability to  debate, discuss or understand the subject matter, and to carry on the oversight roles by the new set of incompetent legislators and leaders voted out of excitement in the wave.

Was the 2021 NUP wave a disgrace to the voters? Well, without bias, anyone could easily conclude to a larger extent. This casts doubts on whether masses/electorates could again vote senselessly for comedians, musicians and other un-qualified politicians out of wave and peer excitements.

Could the upcoming elections be defined by a wave? Critical analysis shows absence of a strong wave. This is largely due to the absence of a new vibrant entrant as the case was in 2021. All the anticipated actors in the forthcoming general election are common faces whose ideologies and methodologies are already familiar to the population.

Unlike 2021, the wave emerged from the emergence of the young and energetic hip-hop star, Bobi Wine who was already popular for his musical lyrics that deeply resonated messages of hope and political change amongst his followers. This was also accompanied by a large social media boosting that dominated public opinion, creating anxiety and excitement that made the wave inevitable.

Also, the false hopes of ending the then 35-year reign of President Museveni ignited by the NUP and social media also lured many unsuspecting voters into the wave with need to see presidential change and transfer of power. This was enabled through a variety of propaganda and lies coined in slogans such as ‘Ensi Ensubize” (promised land) which Bobi Wine would establish after ousting the 3 decades president, “Taja kulayila’ meaning that Museveni wouldn’t swear in, among others which made the fault line for the eruption of the wave inevitable.

Has Bobi Wine lied too much within the shortest time?

Many opposition politicians and opposition voters have defined Bobi Wine with regrets as a lost politician due to incompetency and as a disgrace due to the 2021 lies and false hopes in order to cling to the opposition space.

This is in addition to several claims of his insensitivity towards regime change as seen on several occasions for example, every time there is a protest organized against the regime or unfair policies; he always absconds or finds a music trip to Europe.

A lot of uncertainty surrounds opposition politics and opposition politicians as electoral slogans and manifestos continue to be unveiled. However, there is seemingly no strong wave created yet which leaves doubts about the abilities to defeat the four decades president. Also, the absence of a strong wave could see the sweeping of weak and inefficient opposition politicians by the NRM members or Independents. Could this be the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end to the NUP wave in Uganda’s politics?

Richard Byamukama is a Lawyer and a Security Studies Expert.