Every time something comes to an end, something else begins. So is it the end of a beginning or the beginning of the end to Uganda’s unending woes with the West?

As the fireworks of the new year 2024 lit the skies of Kampala, the media was awash with news indicating how the United States had officially struck off Uganda and three other African countries as beneficiaries of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), effectively ending the nation’s ability to export certain commodities to the US duty-free.

This followed a decree dated December 29, 2023, where President Joe Biden noted that he had determined that the four countries do not meet the requirements necessary to allow them to continue benefiting from the trade deal. In an October 2023 letter to the speaker of the US Congress expressing his intention to remove the four countries from the list of AGOA beneficiaries, President Biden said Uganda had engaged in gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.

This was definitely not the best New Year gift for Ugandan authorities and citizens. On reading the Daily Monitor of January 2, 2024, I am quite sad to find that Uganda’s expulsion from the deal will without doubt destroy thousands of jobs because over 80% of Uganda’s exports under AGOA were from the agricultural sector, which employs about 72% of the country’s population in both skilled and unskilled employment.

Some sycophants joked and said AGOA is not that important, but in an actual sense, it is. AGOA will deprive the country of much-needed foreign exchange earnings.

Data from the US Department of Commerce shows that in 12 months to June 2023, Uganda’s exports to the US under AGOA amounted to $8.2 million, or about 11.5 percent of its total exports to the US in the same period, which totaled $70.7 million.

Look! Uganda is a landlocked country with a small domestic market of approximately 40 million people, whose purchasing power is lower than usual due to a variety of causes ranging from unemployment to poverty, among others, and it needs the AGOA deal. Is the decision a reverse or forward drive?

Most recently, Uganda’s diplomatic relationship with the West, most especially the United States, has been in free fall. This follows allegations of frequent human rights violations from their Western counterparts after the enactment of the Anti-Homosexuality Act by the Ugandan Parliament, which was subsequently assented to law by the President Yoweri K Museveni in May 2023. Termed by all sorts of names, such as the toughest, draconian, state-sponsored homophobia and transphobia, the Western governments put intense pressure on the Ugandan government to reverse the law.

However, the Ugandan Executive, the Parliament, the Church of Uganda, the Catholic Church, and born-again pastors, among others, have gone ahead to defend the anti-homosexuality law, citing transgender people as barbaric and against African morals and values.

On the other hand, the US government has also emphasized the decisions taken in response to Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act and persistent human rights abuses. These include expanded visa restrictions for Ugandan government officials, a reduction in direct government funding, a business advisory issued on October 23, 2023, highlighting increased risks, a travel advisory warning US citizens, advocacy for World Bank safeguards, sanctions imposed on Uganda Prison’s boss, Johnson Byabashaija, and now the withdrawal from AGOA.

At one time, the Speaker of the Ugandan Parliament, Rt Hon. Anita Among while chairing a parliamentary plenary sitting, was quoted saying that the only visa she needs is a visa to her mother district of Bukedea and to Buyende district, where her husband comes from. This was in response to the expanded visa restrictions for Ugandan government officials and the cancellation of her US visa.

As the diplomatic rivalry and anger continue to wreck havoc between the two sides, aren’t we yet to see either of the parties engaging directly in internal affairs? Yes or no, of course, depending on the diplomatic intellect! But such diplomatic blunders are very common in foreign policies. Both sides seem to be acting ruthlessly and unapologetic to their counterparts, who have had a couple of joint economic and social interests in the entire Great Lakes region, for example, in the struggle against Islamists in Somalia, the fight against the LRA, and Joseph Konyi, coupled with several proxy wars in the region in common benefit.

Could there be a means for a diplomatic settlement? The answer is yes! I agree with one entrepreneur by the name of Odrek Rwabwoogo in his statement quoted in the Daily Monitor of November 1, 2023, that both parties should discuss with each other. Both Uganda and the USA are losing a lot in their foreign policy, and there should be means of quiet or third-party diplomacy between both sides.

Could this be the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end of the diplomatic relationship as each side continues to treat the other with disregard?