A new chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission is set to be elected during the continental body’s summit on February 15 and 16, 2025. Three candidates – Richard Randriamandrato from Madagascar, Raila Odinga from Kenya, and Mahmoud Ali Youssouf from Djibouti – are competing to replace Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat, who has served as chairperson since 2017.

With just a day to go until the decisive vote, uncertainty surrounds the identity of the next AU Commission leader. The election is based on a rotational system that designates the next chairperson from Eastern Africa and the deputy from the North. Additionally, the chairperson and deputy cannot be of the same gender, and the four commissioners cannot come from the same regions as the top two leaders.

The election process is rigorous, requiring a two-thirds majority from member states with voting rights. However, six countries, including Gabon, Mali, and Niger, are currently suspended due to military coups, reducing the number of eligible voters. Despite several African heads of state publicly supporting Raila Odinga, the secret ballot keeps the outcome uncertain.

The race is marked by intense diplomatic lobbying. In a last-minute move, Southern African Development Community (SADC) Executive Secretary Elias Magosi urged its 16 members to support Randriamandrato, emphasizing regional unity. However, each member state retains the right to vote based on national interest.

Meanwhile, Raila Odinga, a political veteran from Kenya, has garnered significant backing. Kenyan President William Ruto recently met with outgoing AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki at the sidelines of the 38th Ordinary Session of the African Union Heads of State and Government Summit in Addis Ababa, praising his leadership. Ruto later tweeted his support for Odinga, saying, “Congratulations RAO the Jakom! #RailaWillWin asubuhi na mapema,” highlighting Odinga’s vision for economic transformation through sustainable growth, innovation, and regional integration.

Former Kenyan Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua also backed Odinga, stating on Twitter, “Africa deserves the best. We need a Raila Odinga character to gel the Anglophone and Francophone selves towards the continent of the future. His victory will be a win for Kenya, our motherland.”

Odinga has assured that he will accept the election results, demonstrating his commitment to democratic principles.

Moussa Faki’s tenure as AU Commission Chairperson (2017–2025) was marked by political instability, climate challenges, and shifting global alliances. His leadership coincided with a wave of military coups in Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, prompting AU interventions to uphold democratic governance.

As the AU Heads of State gather in Addis Ababa, the high-stakes election remains unpredictable, with each candidate leveraging strategic alliances. The continent awaits the outcome, which will shape the future of the pan-African body.